(Writing this from a two-bedroom apartment in St Regis Shanghai Jing An.)
Marriott introduced Flexible Redemption Pricing in March 2022, and we have been getting used to how it works in the last nine months. However, there’s a snag that most people may have forgotten or overlooked.
When the new policy was introduced, the price cap of most hotels (i.e. the peak pricing from the old system) were respected, with the exception of a few properties that added a new premium. However, no caps are to be enforced for 2023 stays at any Marriott hotel.
Should we expect a huge increase across many hotels globally? Probably not, as the redemption rates have been adjusting themselves in the last nine months so that they already reflect what Marriott thinks it’s appropriate to charge you for now, more or less. Therefore I don’t think a big devaluation is due anytime soon.
However, there are hotels that represent outsize redemption value which makes them really popular, and they are the ones more likely at risk. For example, Courtyard Oxford City Centre used to be the best redemption option in the UK, starting from only 10,000 points per night.
When the dynamic pricing was introduced, its cap was raised to 20,000 points. For some 2023 dates however, the rate goes to as high as 21,000 points now:
It’s not a massive devaluation, but more are to come. If you have speculative travel plans for next year, and are not short of Marriott points, consider locking in some rooms now.
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